insurance brokers in the country is headed by a fellow who has long been a shareholder of Berkshire。 This man handles a number of large risks that are candidates for placement with our New York office。 Naturally； he does the best he can for his clients。 And； just as naturally； when the insurance market softened dramatically in 1987 he found prices at other insurers lower than we were willing to offer。 His reaction was； first； to place all of his business elsewhere and； second； to buy more stock in Berkshire。 Had we been really petitive； he said； we would have gotten his insurance business but he would not have bought our stock。
1987年中的一个事件可以充分说明我们的价格政策，在纽约有一家家族经营的保险经纪公司是由一个Berkshire多年资深的老股东所领导，这老兄手上有许多客户是我们所想要交往的，但基于职业道德他仍然必须为他的客户争取到最好的权益，所以当保险市场价格大幅滑落，他发现我们的保费比起其它同业贵了许多时，他第一个反应就是赶快把他客户的保单从Berkshire转移到别的保险公司，接下来第二的动作就是买进更多Berkshire的股票，他说要是那一天Berkshire也一样以降价竞争作为因应，那么他就会把生意给Berkshire做，但他可能就会把Berkshire的股票卖光。
Berkshire's underwriting experience was excellent in 1987； in part because of the lag factor discussed earlier。 Our bined ratio （on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance） was 105。 Although the ratio was somewhat less favorable than in 1986； when it was 103； our profitability improved materially in 1987 because we had the use of far more float。 This trend will continue to run in our favor： Our ratio of float to premium volume will increase very significantly during the next few years。 Thus； Berkshire's insurance profits are quite likely to improve during 1988 and 1989； even though we expect our bined ratio to rise。
Berkshire 1987年的承保表现实在是好极了，一方面是因为先前提到的递延效应，我们的综合比率是105（泛指一般保单，不包含私下协议与金融再保部份），虽然这个数字比起1986年的103来说略微逊色，但我们在1987年的获利却由于有更多的浮存金运用而大幅增进，这种好现象将会持续保持，在往后几年我们浮存金对保费收入的比例还是继续增加，所以展望Berkshire1988年与1989年的获利仍将大幅成长，即便综合比率预估亦会增加。
Our insurance business has also made some important non…financial gains during the last few years。 Mike Goldberg； its manager； has assembled a group of talented professionals to write larger risks and unusual coverages。 His operation is now well equipped to handle the lines of business that will occasionally offer us major opportunities。
我们的保险事业去年在非财务数字面亦有重大的斩获，我们组织了一支训练有素的专业团队，专门承保特殊钜额的风险，他们已准备好帮助我们处理任何可能遇到庞大的商机。
Our loss reserve development； detailed on pages 41…42； looks better this year than it has previously。 But we write lots of 〃long…tail〃 business … that is； policies generating claims that often take many years to resolve。 Examples would be product liability； or directors and officers liability coverages。 With a business mix like this； one year of reserve development tells you very little。
有关损失准备提列的情况，详附表，今年的状况比前几年好一点，但由于我们签下了许多长期的生意，许多理赔申请可以要花上好几年才能解决，就像是产品责任保险，或专业经理人责任险，在这种特殊的产业，一年的损失准备其实无法是代表最后结果。
You should be very suspicious of any earnings figures reported by insurers （including our own； as we have unfortunately proved to you in the past）。 The record of the last decade shows that a great many of our best…known insurers have reported earnings to shareholders that later proved to be wildly erroneous。 In most cases； these errors were totally innocent： The unpredictability of our legal system makes it impossible for even the most conscientious insurer to e close to judging the eventual cost of long…tail claims。
大家应该对保险公司的盈余数字时时抱持怀疑的态度，（当然也包含我们公司本身，事实证明确是如此） ，过去十年来的记录显示，有许多显赫一时的保险公司报告给股东亮丽的盈余数字最后证明只不过是一场空，在大部分的情况下，这种错误是无心的，我们诡谲多变的司法制度，使得就算是最有良知的保险公司都无法准确预测这类长期保险的最终成本。
Nevertheless； auditors annually certify the numbers given them by management and in their opinions unqualifiedly state that these figures 〃present fairly〃 the financial position of their clients。 The auditors use this reassuring language even though they know from long and painful experience that the numbers so certified are likely to differ dramatically from the true earnings of the period。 Despite this history of error； investors understandably rely upon auditors' opinions。 After all； a declaration saying that 〃the statements present fairly〃 hardly sounds equivocal to the non…accountant。
但奇怪的是，会计师每年就是有办法为就这些管理阶层给的数字背书，并出具无保留的意见表示这些数字允当表达该公司，也就是他们的客户的财务状况，而事实上他们自己深知过去惨痛的经验告诉他们，这些经过验证的数字与最后可能结算出来的可能会有天壤之别，但却还是仍然使用这种坚定的语言，而从另一方面来说，就算是历史殷鉴在前，投资人却还是相当仰赖会计师的意见，对于会计门外汉来说，他根本就不懂得「该财务报表允当表达」，所代表的真正含意是什么。
The wording in the auditor's standard opinion letter is scheduled to change next year。 The new language represents improvement； but falls far short of describing the limitations of a casualty…insurer audit。 If it is to depict the true state of affairs； we believe the standard opinion letter to shareholders of a property…casualty pany should read something like： 〃We have relied upon representations of management in respect to the liabilities shown for losses and loss adjustment expenses； the estimate of which； in turn； very materially affects the earnings and financial condition herein reported。 We can express no opinion about the accuracy of these figures。 Subject to that important reservation； in our opinion； etc。〃
会计师标准无保留意见查核报告的遣词用语在明年将有重大改变，新的用语有相当的改进，但还是很难充分说明产物意外险公司在查核时所受到的限制，如果一个人想要描述一件事情的真相，我们认为给产物意外险公司股东的标准无保留意见报告中应这样写︰「我们仰赖管理当局提供损失准备与损失费用调整产生财务报表，而这些估计数字事实上影响公司盈余与财务状况甚巨，受限于损失准备的提列先天信息的不足与我们必须提出的意见，我们完全无法对这些数字的正确性表达看法，等等」
If lawsuits develop in respect to wildly inaccurate financial statements （which they do）； auditors will definitely say something of that sort in court anyway。 Why should they not be forthright about their role and its limitations from the outset？
假若有人对这种完全不正确的财务报表提出诉讼官司（事实上就有），会计师一定会在法庭上做类似的辩解，那么他们为什么不一开始就坦白地说明他们真实的角色与所受的限制呢？？
We want to emphasize that we are not faulting auditors for their inability to accurately assess loss reserves （and therefore earnings）。 We fault them only for failing to publicly acknowledge that they can't do this job。
我们想要强调的是我们并不是怪罪会计师没有办法准确地评估损失准备 （当然这会影响到最后的盈余数字），我们无法原谅的是他们没有公开地承认做不到这一点。
From all appearances； the innocent mistakes that are constantly made in reserving are acpanied by others that are deliberate。 Various charlatans have enriched themselves at the expense of the investing public by exploiting； first； the inability of auditors to evaluate reserve figures and； second； the auditors' willingness to confidently certify those figures as if they had the expertise to do so。 We will continue to see such chicanery in the future。 Where 〃earnings〃 can be created by the stroke of a pen； the dishonest will gather。 For them； long…tail insurance is heaven。 The audit wording we suggest would at least serve to put investors on guard against these predators。
从各种不同的角度来看，这种不断在提列损失准备时所犯无心的错误，往往也伴随着许多故意的过失，许多骗徒就是看准会计师没有能力评估这些数字，同时又愿意配合为这些数字背书，假装好象他们真的有这个能力，靠着这种方式来欺骗投资大众赚大钱，在往后的日子我们仍将看到这样的骗局持续上演，只要大笔一挥，盈余便可凭空生出，前述我们建议的查核报告措词，至少可以让无知的投资人提高警觉避免遭到这些掠食者的坑杀。
The taxes that insurance panies pay … which increased materially； though on a delayed basis； upon en