《e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特》

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e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特- 第76节


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 print and electronic advertising channels has substantially increased。 As a consequence; advertising dollars are more widely dispersed and the pricing power of ad vendors has diminished。 These circumstances materially reduce the intrinsic value of our major media investments and also the value of our operating unit; Buffalo News … though all remain fine businesses。 
媒体事业过去只所以能有如此优异的表现,并不是因为销售数量上的成长,而主要是靠所有的业者运用非比寻常的价格主导力量,不过时至今日,广告预算成长已大不如前,此外逐渐取得商品销售市场占有率的一般零售通路商根本就不做媒体广告(虽然有时他们会做邮购服务),最重要的是印刷与电子广告媒体通路大幅增加,因此广告预算被大幅度地分散稀释,广告商的议价能力逐渐丧失殆尽,这种的现象大大地减低我们所持有几个主要媒体事业投资与水牛城报纸的实际价值,虽然大体而言,他们都还算是不错的企业。
Notwithstanding the problems; Stan Lipsey's management of the News continues to be superb。 During 1990; our earnings held up much better than those of most metropolitan papers; falling only 5%。 In the last few months of the year; however; the rate of decrease was far greater。 
不看这些问题,Stan Lipsey的新闻事业经营还是相当地杰出,1990年我们的盈余比起其它主要都会地区的报纸要好的多,大概只下滑了5%,虽然去年有几个月份,减少的幅度稍微大了一点。
I can safely make two promises about the News in 1991: (1) Stan will again rank at the top among newspaper publishers; and (2) earnings will fall substantially。 Despite a slowdown in the demand for newsprint; the price per ton will average significantly more in 1991 and the paper's labor costs will also be considerably higher。 Since revenues may meanwhile be down; we face a real squeeze。 
展望1991年我可以很安心地向大家做出两个保证(1)Stan将会继续在所有的主要新闻出版者当中名列前茅(2)盈余一定会大幅缩水,因为虽然新闻印刷需求大幅缩水,但每吨印刷成本与劳工成本还是会大幅增加,再加上营收下降,面临两头挤压的窘境。
Profits may be off but our pride in the product remains。 We continue to have a larger 〃news hole〃 … the portion of the paper devoted to news … than any parable paper。 In 1990; the proportion rose to 52。3% against 50。1% in 1989。 Alas; the increase resulted from a decline in advertising pages rather than from a gain in news pages。 Regardless of earnings pressures; we will maintain at least a 50% news hole。 Cutting product quality is not a proper response to adversity。 
获利虽然缩水,但我们对于产品依然感到骄傲,比起其它相同规模的报纸,我们拥有超高的新闻比率…新闻占报纸所有版面的比率,从1989年的50。1%增加为52。3%,只可惜增加的原因是因为广告量的减少,而不是新闻版面的增加,虽然受到盈余不小的压力,但我们还是会坚持50%的新闻比率,降低产品的品质不是身处逆境最好的应对方式。
he news at Fechheimer; our manufacturer and retailer of uniforms; is all good with one exception: George Heldman; at 69; has decided to retire。 I tried to talk him out of it but he had one irrefutable argument: With four other Heldmans … Bob; Fred; Gary and Roger … to carry on; he was leaving us with an abundance of managerial talent。 
接下来是我们制服的制造与销售商费区海默的好消息,除了一个坏消息之外,那就是69岁的George Heldman决定要退休,我曾经试着说服他,不过他有一项令人无法拒绝的理由,因为他留下了其它四位Heldmans家族的成员…Bob、Fred、Gary与Roger做接班。
Fechheimer's operating performance improved considerably in 1990; as many of the problems we encountered in integrating the large acquisition we made in 1988 were moderated or solved。 However; several unusual items caused the earnings reported in the 〃Sources〃 table to be flat。 In the retail operation; we continue to add stores and now have 42 in 22 states。 Overall; prospects appear excellent for Fechheimer。 
费区海默的经营绩效在1990年又大幅增进,因为先前在1988年大型的购并所产生的问题已逐渐获得解决,然而由于几个特殊的事件使得我们今年的盈余表现平平,在零售的部份,我们持续地拓展店面,目前在全美22个州拥有42家店,总言之,我们对于费区海默的前景仍然相当看好。
At Scott Fetzer; Ralph Schey runs 19 businesses with a mastery few bring to running one。 In addition to overseeing three entities listed on page 6 … World Book; Kirby; and Scott Fetzer Manufacturing … Ralph directs a finance operation that earned a record 12。2 million pre…tax in 1990。 
轮到史考特飞兹,Ralph Schey经营19家企业的手法比起一般人经营一个还娴熟,除了后面所叙述的三家企业…世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特飞兹制造公司之外,Ralph甚至还掌管一家年税前获利1;220万美元的财务公司。
Were Scott Fetzer an independent pany; it would rank close to the top of the Fortune 500 in terms of return on equity; although it is not in businesses that one would expect to be economic champs。 The superior results are directly attributable to Ralph。 
如果史考特飞兹是一个独立的集团,它在财富五百大股东权益报酬率的排名一定能名列前茅,虽然它所处的产业很难出现耀眼的明星,但这些难得的成绩全都要归功于Ralph。
At World Book; earnings improved on a small decrease in unit volume。 The costs of our decentralization move were considerably less in 1990 than 1989 and the benefits of decentralization are being realized。 World Book remains far and away the leader in United States encyclopedia sales and we are growing internationally; though from a small base。 
世界百科全书,虽然销售数量略微下滑,但盈余却变佳,1990年因分散决策中心的做法所须负担的成本较1989年减少,而其所带来的效益却逐渐显现,世界百科全书在全美百科全书销售中依旧独占鳌头,至于海外市场方面虽然基础规模较小,但却持续地成长中。
Kirby unit volume grew substantially in 1990 with the help of our new vacuum cleaner; The Generation 3; which was an unqualified success。 Earnings did not grow as fast as sales because of both start…up expenditures and 〃learning…curve〃 problems we encountered in manufacturing the new product。 International business; whose dramatic growth I described last year; had a further 20% sales gain in 1990。 With the aid of a recent price increase; we expect excellent earnings at Kirby in 1991。 
受惠于新款的真空吸尘器,寇比在1990年的销售数量大增,第三代的推出无疑是一大胜利,由于先期开发成本与新产品制造所面临的学习曲线问题,使得获利增加不若营收成长的幅度,海外市场方面相较于去年爆炸性的成长,今年再度有20%的成长,而由于最近产品价格再度调涨,我们预期寇比在1991年的获利应该会更好。
Within the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group; Campbell Hausfeld; its largest unit; had a particularly fine year。 This pany; the country's leading producer of small and medium…sized air pressors; achieved record sales of 109 million; more than 30% of which came from products introduced during the last five years。 
至于史考特飞兹制造公司部份,最大的单位Campbell Hausfeld今年的表现特别好,它是全美中小型空气压缩机的领导品牌,年度营业额创下1。09亿美元的新高,其中有30%的营收系来自于最近五年新推出的产品。
In looking at the figures for our non…insurance operations; you will see that net worth increased by only 47 million in 1990 although earnings were 133 million。 This does not mean that our managers are in any way skimping on investments that strengthen their business franchises or that promote growth。 Indeed; they diligently pursue both goals。 
在看我们非保险业的营运数字时,大家可能会好奇为何我们年度的盈余有1。33亿美元,但净值却只增加了4;700万美元呢? 这并不代表我们的经理人用任何方法来掩盖其公司的经济实力或成长潜力,事实上他们无不努力追求这些目标。
But they also never deploy capital without good reason。 The result: In the past five years they have funneled well over 80% of their earnings to Charlie and me for use in new business and investment opportunities。 
不过他们也从不会毫无理由地浪费资金,过去五年以来他们将所赚得的80%盈余送回母公司,交给查理跟我运用在新的事业与投资机会之上。
Insurance Operations保险业营运
Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the property…casualty insurance industry: 
下表是产物意外险业的最新的几项重要指数
Yearly Change bined Ratio Yearly Change Inflation Ratein Premiums After Policyholder in Incurred Measured byWritten (%) Dividends Losses (%) GNP Deflator (%)
1981 1982 。 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (Revised) 1990(Est。)
3。8 3。7 5。0 8。5 22。1 22。2 9。4 4。4 3。2 4。5
106。0 109。6 112。0 118。0 116。3 108。0 104。6 105。4 109。2 109。8
6。5 8。4 6。8 16。9 16。1 13。5 7。8 5。5 7。7 4。1
9。6 6。5 3。8 3。8 3。0 2。6 3。1 3。3 4。1 5。0 
Source: A。M。 Best Co。 
The bined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) pared to reve
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